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Chen's alliance proposal will dilute electoral results: scholar
Source: Taiwan Headlines & Central News Agency
A panel of leading scholars gathered Wednesday morning at the Grand Hotel in Taipei for a pre-election colloquium on "Understanding the 2001 Election's Significance and Impact," sponsored by National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations (IIR).
The panel members addressed a number of issues, including cooperation among political parties, WTO entry and cross-strait relations, and the repositioning of the Democratic Progressive Party's stance on Taiwan independence.
The scholars agreed that because the election is unlikely to result in a single party having a majority, the post-election period will be a busy one as the parties maneuver to build a majority coalition.
Dr. Philip Hsu, an IIR assistant research fellow, led off the symposium with remarks on cross-strait relations and the election. He noted that cross-strait issues are more on the party level than on the candidate level. Topics related to cross-Taiwan Strait relations are mainly used to distinguish political parties rather than individual candidates, he said, adding that it remains to be seen how the results of the upcoming poll will affect cross-strait ties
Hsu said that the WTO framework offers possibilities for a peaceful "alternative dynamic of cross-strait stability." This is especially useful for Taiwan because "the WTO's membership is almost as wide as the United Nations'," he pointed out.
Sheng Chih-jen, a Soochow University assistant professor, said that should President Chen Shui-bian really manage to form the proposed national stability alliance, this pro-ruling party coalition would become the largest force in the new Legislature, even if the Democratic Progressive Party fails to emerge from the upcoming legislative polls with a clear majority.
"Such a scenario would downgrade the importance of the electoral outcome," Sheng said.
"It is regrettable that no constructive or meaningful topics have surfaced or been debated in the pre-election campaigning," Sheng said.
"Nevertheless, the electoral outcome is expected to reshape the island's political landscape. From this angle, the polls could be a decisive battle for certain political parties," Sheng observed.
Dr. Lin Jih-wen of Academia Sinica picked up where Sheng left off, addressing the transformation of Taiwan's party system. "The change of Taiwan's party system may hinge on three major factors," he said, identifying these as the 2001 election, post-election government formation, and the 2004 presidential election.
Even though the DPP has a slight edge over the KMT in the legislative election, he said, citing that with 10 percent more candidates "the KMT has over-nominated," the ruling DPP, like the KMT, will be unable to gain a majority. Thus, Taiwan's Legislature will be without a majority party for the first time, he said.
Although the so-called pan-blue alliance of the KMT, PFP and New Party is likely to grab at least 54 percent of the seats in the Legislature, they are unlikely to merge into a majority party, he said, noting that this would force out two party leaders and make selection of the team for the next presidential election even more difficult. Chen's proposed national stability alliance "can make itself a de facto majority coalition, if the KMT performs poorly in the election," he said.
IIR Deputy Director Joseph Wu covered the issue of the constitutional system and the election in his remarks. There has been a great deal of interest in reforming the electoral system, he pointed out, noting that many are dissatisfied with Taiwan's unique multi-member district system. There is a "high consensus" among academics for adopting the German proportionate model, he said, though he noted some politicians would prefer something closer to the Japanese system.
Of the possible scenarios for a post-election coalition, Wu said the most probable is a "convenient coalition" comprising the DPP, TSU and KMT defectors. Another possibility would be an alliance between the DPP and the KMT, joined by the TSU. Other possible -- but even less likely -- coalitions would be a "minimum winning coalition" of the DPP and PFP, along with the TSU; and a "grand coalition" of the DPP, KMT, PFP and TSU, Wu said.
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