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Party wish-lists in the 2001 elections
(Taipei Journal, 10/19/2001)
Story Type:National Affairs;
Byline:Myra Lu
With barely 40 days left before the Dec. 1 election of legislators, county magistrates and city mayors, the streets of Taiwan seem strangely quiet considering its expected impact on the island's political landscape. Relatively few campaign banners are flapping in the breeze compared to past elections, while even fewer pamphlets are being handed out to pedestrians.
Blame it on recession. But no matter how chilly the economic climate has become, this election will determine whether the governing Democratic Progressive Party will finally be able to shore up its minority status in the Legislature and retain a grip on local-level administrations.
Despite leaner coffers, this year has seen a record number of candidates registered for the race. A total of 90 people are vying for 23 positions for county magistrate or city mayor, while 458 hopefuls are eyeing the 176 directly-elected seats in the Legislature. The remaining seats in the 225-strong legislative body are allocated by proportional representation to political parties that secure at least 5 percent of the total votes in the legislative elections. Legislators who fill these seats represent a nationwide constituency and the overseas Chinese community.
The December elections will be the first major balloting after the DPP assumed power last year. Still a minority in the lawmaking body, the DPP holds out hope that winning a legislative majority would strengthen its power base. Likewise, the Kuomintang, which currently enjoys majority status in the Legislature, would hate to see its seats diminish after the coming polls.
The KMT also has the intention of winning back administrative power at the county and city level. In the 1997 local-level elections, the KMT held on to just eight of its 15 positions of county magistrates and city mayors. The DPP was able to double its seats to 12, significantly expanding the party's political influence. The KMT's defeat has steeled its determination to win big this time.
Aside from the deep-seated rivalry between the KMT and DPP, further rippling the political waters are the year-old People First Party and two-month-old Taiwan Solidarity Union. Even though both splinter groups were founded by former KMT members, the PFP and TSU have markedly different ideologies and are each struggling to find public acceptance.
The PFP was founded shortly after last year's presidential election by KMT maverick James Soong. It has often been derided as a one-man party because its supporters tend to identify with Soong alone, rather than with the party as a whole. Analysts admit that without the cult of personality surrounding the former Taiwan provincial governor, the party would cease to exist. Soong, who ran in the 2000 presidential election on an independent ticket, won 36.84 percent of the vote, trailing Chen Shui-bian by less than 3 percent.
Many PFP officials regard the year- end elections as a way to test the waters, allowing the nascent party to openly assess its power base.
The TSU, on the other hand, is placing high hopes on becoming a decisive minority in the Legislature. Backed by former President Lee Teng-hui, the TSU has a staunchly pro-Taiwan ideology that it claims is the only way to help the island prosper. Political pundits say the party could chip away grassroots support from the KMT--and perhaps even the DPP-- as Lee still wields considerable influence, particularly in southern Taiwan.
The KMT recently expelled Lee from the party--a development the former president seems to have taken in stride. He has been actively stumping for the TSU, lashing out at the KMT, of which he served 12 years as chairman. Lee is apparently irked by the KMT's budding relationship with the communist leaders in Beijing. Several party officials have visited political leaders in mainland China after the KMT lost power in Taiwan--something Lee sees as nothing more than united front tactics.
The New Party, also a KMT splinter group, is eager to revitalize its fading image. It performed poorly in the last legislative and presidential elections. This time the New Party nominated a record 33 legislative candidates in order to reach the 5 percent threshold, which would allow it to nominate appointees.
With this many contenders, both new and old, the fight in Taiwan's small political arena is expected to be fierce. Every political party wants a large number of seats to gain more clout. Their desire has also been fed by President Chen's promise to form a coalition government after the election. Mindful that the DPP's minority status has made passing legislation nigh impossible, Chen began to float the cooperation idea several months ago. Although the president stressed that the DPP would lead any Cabinet reshuffle, it still seems evident that whichever party ends up working with the DPP in the new Legislature will be able to weigh in heavily on policy-making.
The fear of losing more ground has galvanized the DPP into soliciting wider public support. Offering his prediction for the outcome of the elections, DPP Secretary-General Wu Nai-jen expressed optimism that his party would garner at least 80 legislative seats. He expects about the same for the KMT, adding that the two parties will likely have a difference of about five seats.
Wu also predicted that the PFP would win about 35 seats while the New Party and TSU would each pick up five. Another 10 would likely fall to independent candidates, he said.
In the county magistrate and city mayor elections, Wu said he is confident of the DPP's chances in at least 12 constituencies, including Taipei, Ilan, Hsinchu and Taichung counties as well as the cities of Keelung and Tainan.
The DPP is well known for its strategy of cooperation among candidates in the same constituency. In past elections, this tactic--urging supporters to spread their votes among the DPP hopefuls--proved successful in getting most of the party's candidates elected. This year, the party is sticking to this cooperative strategy in most ridings.
KMT official Chao Shou-po seems equally upbeat about his party's performance, predicting that the KMT will secure 90 seats in the Legislature and 10 local-level positions. According to Chao, the KMT has the most nominations of all the political groups. In some pro-KMT constituencies, the party has selected as many candidates as possible to squeeze the votes that might otherwise go to former KMT members.
Rather than offer a quantitative prediction for the outcome of the December elections, PFP Secretary-General Chung Jung-chi said he believes his party will be the fastest-growing group in the Legislature, even though it may not have a chance to outnumber the other parties. The PFP legislative caucus, however, noted that the party expects to win about 20 percent of the total votes.
The TSU and the New Party are also positive about their chances in the upcoming contest. The young party backed by Lee believes that it has a strong public image thanks to the former president's intense campaigning of late. Party officials said they are looking at 30 legislative seats. The New Party, meanwhile, said they would win at least 10.
Politics often blurs the faces of friends and foes. Since early this year, the KMT, the PFP and the New Party have toyed with the idea of interparty cooperation in order to prevent splitting the vote. They opined that the three together represent a formidable opposition force that, if united, would be strong enough to counter the governing DPP. Unfortunately, cooperation proved to be difficult when talks broke down as each began to consider its own interests.
Now the only riding left for cooperation is Taipei County--the largest in Taiwan. The New Party's Wang Chien-shien is representing the KMT, the PFP and the New Party to run for county magistrate in an attempt to defeat incumbent Su Tseng-chang of the DPP. Most political observers agree that the fight will be tough. Although Su has impressed voters with his administrative abilities over the past four years, Wang--with his relatively positive image and vast support from the three parties--also stands a good chance.
Perhaps the only things lacking in the run-up to the year-end elections are campaign platforms. There have been scattered opinions in the midst of all this electioneering, such as talk of parliamentary reform, a reduction of legislative seats and transparency in political donations. But by and large, the most important yardstick by which to measure a candidate--his stance on the issues--has been put on the back burner for now. As Taiwan eagerly anticipates a meaningful discussion of the issues from its host of possible representatives, the public hunkers down in preparation for a long battle that will be decisive to the future of all the island's political parties.
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