The Republic of China Presidential Election

Coming Together

Publish Date: 03/01/2004
Story Type: POLITICS; PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004
Byline: PAT GAO AND LEANNE KAO

After a split in the Nationalist Party in the 2000
presidential election resulted in the victory of the
Democratic Progressive Party and the first transfer
of political power in the history of the Republic of
China in Taiwan, the Nationalists and their allies have
regrouped and are fielding a combined ticket to win
back the presidency in this month's election.

On April 18th last year, Lien Chan, chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), and James Soong, chairman of the People First Party (PFP)--together the two largest opposition parties in Taiwan--announced that they would run together on a joint ticket for the March 20th presidential election. The alliance quickly put the opposition politicians on a winning track, according to various opinion polls conducted immediately after the declaration.

To see the significance of the joint bid and the reason for the optimism among the opposition parties, one needs only to look back to the 2000 presidential race. In 2000, the three candidates ran on separate ballots. Lien, the KMT successor to outgoing president Lee Teng-hui, hoped to keep the party in office. Soong, split with the KMT and ran as an independent, splitting KMT voters between the two candidates. Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) proved to be the ultimate beneficiary of the KMT split, winning the presidency with 39 percent of the vote.

After the election, Soong formed the PFP, which drew support mostly from the KMT, and was expected to run for president as head of his party this year. The PFP, after gaining seats in the legislature and becoming a part of the local political landscape, began cooperating with the KMT and a smaller KMT splinter group, the New Party, in what is known as the "pan-blue" alliance, which has set the legislative agenda as the largest voting block in the legislature.

The 2000 election proved to be a cautionary tale for pan-blue politicians and their supporters. If the camp fielded candidates from the constituent political parties, it was believed, they would once again open the way for a DPP victory. Talk about a Lien-Soong coalition started right after the election, and the two candidates eventually buried the hatchet. They adopted a tandem bicycle as their campaign logo to indicate the unity of purpose and agreement on the direction of the alliance. Lien, as the leader of the larger party, would take the front seat as the presidential candidate, as Soong pedals from behind bringing the support of the PFP.

The cooperation of two formerly bitter opponents indicated that the pan-blue camp was determined to rise above factional differences in their bid to win back the presidency. Heavy hitters stepped up to lead the campaign effort. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng is in charge of the general campaign strategy, while Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, a popular younger KMT politician, is serving as the overall campaign manager.

The ticket outlined a platform that will focus on the economy, ensure a peaceful resolution of the longstanding feud with China, and lift the spirit of the Taiwanese after tough economic times. The KMT hopes to capitalize on the dissatisfaction caused by the recent economic slump and rising unemployment rates. "Many polls have indicated that issues regarding people's livelihood and the economy top all other concerns," says Tseng Yung-chuan, KMT legislator and chief deputy campaign manger. "The deciding factors for the 2004 election are the people's feelings toward the present situation and the visions projected by the candidates. We're convinced that Lien is winning people over with his honesty and credibility."

Campaign organizers have consulted the political demographics of Taiwan to concentrate on the best strategy. Traditionally, the pan-blue camp holds the edge in the east, center, and north of the island in national elections. In the south, the demographic is thornier. The south is the home of many supporters of Taiwanese localism, a movement closely associated with the ruling DPP. Tseng points out that the south is where the hardest battles will take place. Yet, the KMT also has supporters in the south, notably in the largest southern city, Kaohsiung. Soong, the vice-presidential candidate, could also prove to be an asset in the south, since during his tenure as provincial governor of Taiwan--a position since abolished--he won the gratitude of many grassroots groups there through financial support from his office.

To win southern votes, the KMT must recognize some of the "cultural" divisions that have widened in recent years. The promotion of a Taiwan-centric vision of Taiwanese identity and the cultivation of pro-independence sentiment by both the DPP and by Taiwan's newest political party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, of which former president Lee Teng-hui is the inspiration, increased acrimony toward the KMT in some areas. The KMT has long been inclined to maintain an ambiguous approach between the two sides of the Strait and has generally avoided talking about an independent Taiwan.

The debate, which has become emotional and often shrill in recent years, has been categorized as an ethnic divide, splitting ethnic Chinese who arrived before the 1940s against those who arrived later. Although the debate is not an ethnic dispute in any scientific sense, it is a real divide in Taiwanese society, and the KMT has been forced to make displays of its allegiance to the island in recent years to gain support. This was evident in the KMT's grudging support for a watered-down form of referendum, a political mechanism not previously used in Taiwanese politics, after Chen pushed the issue as a display of democracy and allegiance to Taiwan.

Chen's referendum proposals include the question of constitutional reform. The proposals acted as a tonic for many pan-green supporters and independence advocates, and persuaded many voters that a referendum was a democratic right long delayed.

In response, the blue camp submitted its own version of a referendum bill, which was passed on November 27 last year. The KMT, it became clear, was willing to soften its opposition to independence as a concession to public opinion. Wang Jin-pyng, the legislative speaker, later revealed to the press that the blue camp would cease talks about the "1992 consensus" on the one-China issue, which was a rallying point for anti-KMT-PFP sentiment and opened the way for the closing of the gap on the issue between the two parties. "We've deconstructed our old thinking," says Hwang Yih-jiau, PFP legislator and spokesman. "Once we changed our thinking, we saw more options available--with no set timetable needed: independence, unification, the status quo, or whatever is suitable for that particular timeframe. We won't take the right away from the people in determining the future of Taiwan."

Even with the softening of the KMT-PFP's pro-China stance, recent polls continue to show the two camps in a dead heat. The early polls showing a clear KMT-PFP lead changed as the race heated up, and the race today lacks a clear frontrunner. One reason for the DPP gaining some traction in the polls is its strategy of portraying the opposition ticket as a return to the bad, old regime, an attack on the Nationalist government that ruled Taiwan from 1945 to 1987 before Lee came into power. But various polls show that Taiwan's economic achievement under KMT rule has led more voters to believe in the blue camp's ability to run the country, which suggests that the camp should continue to play to its strengths, Tseng says.

King Pu-tsung, professor of the National Chengchi University's Department of Journalism, believes that the tactics of both camps' election bids mark a step backward for Taiwan's democracy. The divide between the earlier and later Taiwanese immigrants is used to sharpen differences and polarize society into voting blocks, he says, casting aside more substantial economic issues. "The election has been turned into an ideological war," he says. "My concern is that if these tactics succeed, they'll reappear time and again and degrade society." The blue camp is as guilty as its rivals, he says, because it fails to make use of its momentum to dominate public debates and direct people's attention to real issues.

According to King, the KMT-PFP candidates failed when they first formed their alliance to steer their campaign toward substantial issues. "The blue camp let go of the opportunity to elevate the people's knowledge about democracy through the campaign process when they had widespread public attention," he says. "It's only normal for the camp that leads in the polls to set the tone for how the game will be played. The blue camp needs to work on this."

Tseng says Taiwan's democracy is young and widespread, and voters are still moved by populist sentiment when choosing a leader; they focus on the emotions of the moment but not the issues of the future. "We've been paying a great deal for that shortcoming in our democracy," he says. "Elections aren't all about winning or losing. We should think about the growth elections could bring to society."

Hwang Yih-jiau of the PFP says that issues generated from societal conflicts and ideological differences are creating resentment, and people are getting fed up with such ploys. The accusations of a lack of patriotism against the opposition parties represents a long pent-up grievance in Taiwanese society. That the issues are spoken of openly today might well be diluting their strength and allowing Taiwanese voters to move onto more crucial issues of the future. "We'll continue to engage the DPP camp in the debates over more important issues concerning the economy, education, the unemployment rate, judicial reform, women's participation in politics, and many others," Hwang says. The blue camp is trying to defuse some of the tensions that they feel are polarizing society--and also hurting its chances at returning to office.

A central platform of the Lien-Soong ticket is the economy. They have promised under their administration to invest NT$2 trillion (US$59 billion) in public construction projects over a four-year period, cut the unemployment rate to below 4 percent, boost the economic growth by at least 5 percent, and balance government revenue and expenditures over six years. Tseng points out that economic problems are chronic, whereas problems with the budget are urgent. "The government has piled up its debt over the past few years," he says. "Taiwan's economy can be very fragile without proper management."

Lien has also promised to make progress on cross-Strait relations. Since 1949, Taiwan and China have been stuck in a deadlock over how to improve relations and open links, while the business community has been clamoring for direct flights and a relaxation of capital controls and other restrictions on investing in China. Lien has promised to open direct flights to the mainland within two years. Other planks in the platform include reforming the legislative and the judicial systems, merging local governments on the west coast into three major regional centers to enhance Taiwan's competitive edge, increasing the tax deduction for college students from NT$25,000 (US$735) per household to NT$50,000 (US$1,470) per person, and offering more financial support to struggling families. While many people dismiss campaign pledges as empty promises to please the voters, King says they have their uses. "The voters should demand campaign promises so they may use them as a checklist to score elected officials. If they fail to live up to them, replace the officials through your vote. That's democracy."

King hopes that voters ask candidates for real substance before deciding on a candidate. Once voters turn away from the color divide of the blue-green camps and decide on the issues, King says, rational debates on public policies will outshine provocative campaign language and Taiwan's democracy will flourish.